![]() ![]() Such a broad and extensive trade network renders the soybean supply chain especially vulnerable to local perturbations at the growing regions. The difference in scale between local production and global consumption makes soybeans the most traded crop in value in the world ( FAO, 2021). ![]() The vast majority of its production is concentrated in specific regions in Argentina, Brazil and United States of America, accounting for 80 % of the world production ( Hartman et al., 2011 Maria et al., 2020). They are used for human consumption, the main source of protein for animal feed worldwide and the second most consumed type of vegetable oil ( Hartman et al., 2011). Soybeans are important for modern global society. This has implications for assessment of the drivers of extreme impact events. While event analogues of the 2012 season are rare and not expected to increase, impact analogues show a significant increase in occurrence frequency under global warming, but for different combinations of the meteorological drivers than experienced in 2012. With more frequent warm years due to global warming, the joint hot–dry conditions leading to crop failures become mostly dependent on precipitation levels, reducing the importance of the relative compound contribution. Results suggest soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. We find that crop failures in the midwestern US are linked to low precipitation levels, and high temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) levels during July and August. Finally, we explore the meteorological conditions inductive for the 2012 crop failure and construct analogues of these failure conditions in future climate settings. We use large ensembles from the EC-Earth global climate model, corresponding to present-day, pre-industrial +2 and 3 ∘C warming, respectively, to isolate the global warming component. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures and on the structure of compound drivers. We first train a random forest model to identify the most relevant meteorological drivers of historical crop failures and to predict crop failure probabilities. For that, we focus on a historical failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in the midwestern US. The goal of this study is to identify important meteorological drivers that cause crop failures and to explore changes in crop failures due to global warming. Furthermore, climate change is likely to perturb the meteorological conditions, possibly altering the occurrences of crop failures or leading to unprecedented drivers of extreme impacts. For these cases, the explanation of conditions leading to crop failure is complex, as the links connecting weather and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, crop failure commonly is induced by the occurrence of multiple and combined anomalous meteorological drivers. Unfavourable weather is a common cause for crop failures all over the world. ![]()
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